Gotta love the hype machine

Bob Neumeier

Beating the odds should be the goal of any handicapper. Accomplishing that goal requires "an edge" that John Q. Average Bettor does not have at his/her fingertips with the traditional tools -- past performances, speed figures, breeding information, statistics et al. What are some of those "edges"?

Tips from owners, trainers, jockeys, agents, program vendors, beer sellers, and Uncle Sammy are not the advantages I have in mind. Occasionally, they will click but over the years I can speak from experience that this "inside information" is vastly over-rated. For every successful tout on a winning first-time starter, there are dozens that miserably fail.

But there is an edge that players can exploit -- hype.

Hype is publicity.the drum beating you read in industry newspapers and magazines and hear on television and radio. The hero machine is particularly strong during both the Triple Crown and the Breeders' Cup. At these times, good horses are touted as greats; great horses are pumped as superstars. Players with fundamental handicapping skills and a sense of betting value can exploit this obsession the racing industry has in creating stars, real or imagined. In short, you should ALWAYS look to bet against those horses hyped in the Daily Racing Form and other publications.

The recent Triple Crown races provided several of these opportunities. Before the Kentucky Derby for example, the drumbeaters anointed Empire Maker as the next racing hero. He had the bloodlines (by Unbridled), the hot trainer (Bobby Frankel), and one of the game's top riders (Jerry Bailey). Even the normally even-keeled Bailey turned up the volume by calling Empire Maker "a legitimate Triple Crown contender."

While he should have been installed as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby based on his wins in the Florida Derby and the Wood Memorial, there is no logical explanation for the incredible difference in his odds at post time (8-5) and that of his Wood runner-up Funny Cide (13-1), who ran a game second to the favorite in that final Aqueduct prep. That Funny Cide went to post at those amazing odds reflected the positive hype about Empire Maker and the negative hype about the prospects of a New York-bred gelding winning in Louisville. People became brainwashed by all of the negative statistical minutia about Funny Cide. Interesting, how that changed in just five weeks time, isn't it?

For the purposes of full disclosure, I was not shrewd enough to capitalize on the generous odds offered on the winner. I went chasing after Santa Anita Derby winner Buddy Gill, who was offered at enticing odds in the Kentucky Derby given his form at the time. Even though Buddy did not run well in Louisville, I had no second thoughts about my wager after the race. Those fans bright enough to capitalize on the terrific odds offered on Funny Cide deserve hearty congratulations.

Another foolproof Derby wagering strategy is to eliminate each year's "chi-chi" darling. This is the horse that goes to post at 5-1, when his pp's suggest he should be 10 or 12-1. The drumbeaters selected Ten Most Wanted as this year's hyped-up selection and as in the usual custom, ran dismally.

But the best chance to exploit the hype came in the Belmont Stakes. The romantic story spinning around Funny Cide captured the imagination of not only the racing public, but also sports fans everywhere. From the absurd charges directed at Jose Santos to the wonderful small-town tale of the owners to the veteran trainer thrust into the media spotlight, the entire package proved irresistible.

On race day, that was clearly reflected on the odds board. The public apparently realized they could become part of history by betting on Funny Cide. People were so hopeful that this Triple Crown fairy tale could come true that they wagered more with their hearts than their brains. The results were somewhat startling. Rather than walk to post as co-favorites as conventional logic would have suggested, Empire Maker with six minutes to post was billed at 5-2 odds, Funny Cide at 4-5. Late money sent the second choice off at a 2-1 price.

At the risk of sounding like an NFL general manager after the first round of the draft when they say obligatorily, "I can't believe the player was available", I peered at the Belmont odds board like a kid on Christmas morning.

Fulfilling a pre-race promise that I would empty my pockets at 8-5 or higher on Empire Maker, the bet was made to win with full confidence.

The point here is not self-adulation, but rather to illustrate an example of exploiting hype in racing. Granted, the hundreds of thousands of dollars slammed into the windows on Funny Cide could have been as much sentimentality as it was about pre-race publicity. Whatever the specifics, taking advantage of an imbalanced odds board should be the primary goal of every successful player.

When important Grade 1 races are run in your area, read the newspapers. Try and get a gauge on the horse that is getting all the hype.

Then, bet against him/her.

You'll benefit in the long run.