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Hindsight, you gotta love it!



The first Breeders' Cup Future Bet is in the books, and with 96 separate betting interests, a few horses slipped through the cracks while others were pounded beyond all reason. At least that's how it looks with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.

From the "He's what?! Are they kidding? Where's the window?!" Dept.:

Medaglia d'Oro at 10-1 in the Classic - Those who took that price on this lightly raced Bobby Frankel colt will be all smiles after the Whitney. Did I mention that he's 2-2 at Santa Anita?

Milwaukee Brew at 18-1 in the Classic - Like his stablemate, he too loves Santa Anita and 1-¼ miles is his favorite distance. Yep, that Frankel guy also trains this six year-old son of Classic winner Wild Again, one of only two horses in history to win the Santa Anita Handicap twice. The other? John Henry.

Aldebaran at 11-1 in the Sprint - Another Frankel monster completely ignored despite a series of phenomenal efforts? Has everyone forgotten that Frankel, snake-bit in the BC going into 2001 (0-38), won the Sprint that year and the Filly and Mare Turf in 2002. Granted 6 furlongs maybe too short for this closer but 11-1 is going to look a whole lot better than the 3-1 or so you'll be getting when they load into the gate come Oct. 25th.

Azeri at 3-1 in the Distaff - say hello to the power of television. Frankel's three fillies (Wild Spirit, Sightseek and Spoken Fur) all ran out of their respective minds on national tv the past two weekends while Azeri was nowhere to be seen, training quickly and quietly down in San Luis Rey, CA. The result was quite a nice price for those who believe Azeri will mop the floor with those three just like she did to the 2002 Distaff crew.

High Chapparal at 11-1 in the Turf - Last years' Turf winner had some niggling injuries this spring and summer but returns to action next week in Ireland. Now 4, he's bigger, stronger and more mature and Coolmore would run him if he wasn't healthy and ready to roll. If he's back on his game, 8-5 will be your price come BC day.

Strut the Stage at 80-1 in the Turf - He just whipped Perfect Soul in Canada and that guy can run. If the warm weather and fast ground does in the Euros, this guy is one of four or five who could get lucky and it only takes a few bucks at 80-1 to pay for the whole trip to see him go for it.

Now a word from the "Not with your money" Dept..

Empire Maker at 7-2 in the Classic - Some other years maybe, but this fall he'll have to beat one of the deepest, most talented groups of elders gathered in one place since "On Golden Pond."

Funny Cide at 12-1 in the Classic - See above, times two.

Beau's Town at 6-1 in the Sprint - 5-1 to win the Bing Crosby was fair, but after he rolled to victory the bandwagon jumping got out of control and he ended up at a similar price to win a much tougher race over another new surface three months later. Did I mention his trainer said he won't race again until the big day?

Gygistar at 9-1 in the Sprint - He's had more injury problems than Chris Webber, has yet to beat anyone half-decent in his career and has never run in California. He's all yours.

The Distaff "field" at 9-1: Who exactly is going to come out of the woodwork in the next 3 months and beat Azeri, Wild Spirit and Sightseek? Answer - Nobody. Better to have given this money to charity.

Affluent at 23 -1 in the Distaff - Azeri is to this mare what the New York Yankees are to Red Sox closer Byung-Hyung Kim; a spirit-crushing nightmare.

The next wagering period comes at the end of August and revisits all four races, which will make it very interesting for those who got in on the ground floor and can do a little hedging. There will be a few new faces, a few who drop off due to injury (Dollar Bill) and others who are also a no-go (Kona Gold was retired the day after the pools closed after a poor effort in the 'Crosby).

Those that watch closely between now and then, do their homework over the weekend and wait until late Sunday to jump in will have given themselves a chance to find value.

To those that don't, we thank you.

 

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