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Hindsight, you gotta love it!
Jason
Levin
The first Breeders' Cup Future Bet is in the
books, and with 96 separate betting interests, a few horses slipped
through the cracks while others were pounded beyond all reason.
At least that's how it looks with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.
From the "He's what?! Are they kidding? Where's the window?!" Dept.:
Medaglia d'Oro at 10-1 in the Classic - Those who took that price
on this lightly raced Bobby Frankel colt will be all smiles after
the Whitney. Did I mention that he's 2-2 at Santa Anita?
Milwaukee Brew at 18-1 in the Classic - Like his stablemate, he
too loves Santa Anita and 1-¼ miles is his favorite distance. Yep,
that Frankel guy also trains this six year-old son of Classic winner
Wild Again, one of only two horses in history to win the Santa Anita
Handicap twice. The other? John Henry.
Aldebaran at 11-1 in the Sprint - Another Frankel monster completely
ignored despite a series of phenomenal efforts? Has everyone forgotten
that Frankel, snake-bit in the BC going into 2001 (0-38), won the
Sprint that year and the Filly and Mare Turf in 2002. Granted 6
furlongs maybe too short for this closer but 11-1 is going to look
a whole lot better than the 3-1 or so you'll be getting when they
load into the gate come Oct. 25th.
Azeri at 3-1 in the Distaff - say hello to the power of television.
Frankel's three fillies (Wild Spirit, Sightseek and Spoken Fur)
all ran out of their respective minds on national tv the past two
weekends while Azeri was nowhere to be seen, training quickly and
quietly down in San Luis Rey, CA. The result was quite a nice price
for those who believe Azeri will mop the floor with those three
just like she did to the 2002 Distaff crew.
High Chapparal at 11-1 in the Turf - Last years' Turf winner had
some niggling injuries this spring and summer but returns to action
next week in Ireland. Now 4, he's bigger, stronger and more mature
and Coolmore would run him if he wasn't healthy and ready to roll.
If he's back on his game, 8-5 will be your price come BC day.
Strut the Stage at 80-1 in the Turf - He just whipped Perfect Soul
in Canada and that guy can run. If the warm weather and fast ground
does in the Euros, this guy is one of four or five who could get
lucky and it only takes a few bucks at 80-1 to pay for the whole
trip to see him go for it.
Now a word from the "Not with your money" Dept..
Empire Maker at 7-2 in the Classic - Some other years maybe, but
this fall he'll have to beat one of the deepest, most talented groups
of elders gathered in one place since "On Golden Pond."
Funny Cide at 12-1 in the Classic - See above, times two.
Beau's Town at 6-1 in the Sprint - 5-1 to win the Bing Crosby was
fair, but after he rolled to victory the bandwagon jumping got out
of control and he ended up at a similar price to win a much tougher
race over another new surface three months later. Did I mention
his trainer said he won't race again until the big day?
Gygistar at 9-1 in the Sprint - He's had more injury problems than
Chris Webber, has yet to beat anyone half-decent in his career and
has never run in California. He's all yours.
The Distaff "field" at 9-1: Who exactly is going to come out of
the woodwork in the next 3 months and beat Azeri, Wild Spirit and
Sightseek? Answer - Nobody. Better to have given this money to charity.
Affluent at 23 -1 in the Distaff - Azeri is to this mare what the
New York Yankees are to Red Sox closer Byung-Hyung Kim; a spirit-crushing
nightmare.
The next wagering period comes at the end of August and revisits
all four races, which will make it very interesting for those who
got in on the ground floor and can do a little hedging. There will
be a few new faces, a few who drop off due to injury (Dollar Bill)
and others who are also a no-go (Kona Gold was retired the day after
the pools closed after a poor effort in the 'Crosby).
Those that watch closely between now and then, do their homework
over the weekend and wait until late Sunday to jump in will have
given themselves a chance to find value.
To those that don't, we thank you.
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