Pre-Entries Analysis by Equibase's Ellis Starr

Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 2 - Post Time 10:20
Breeders' Cup Distaff Presented by Nextel - Purse $2,000,000
1 1/8 miles (9 furlongs) - For fillies and mares 3 years old and up

Adoration - Placed third via the disqualification of Elloluv in her last start, over the Santa Anita strip, Adoration's only win in 2003 came in a restricted stakes race, not exactly the Grade 2 or Grade 1 form we are looking for in a major contender in this event. Not only has she never raced at this distance, her high Equibase Speed Figure winning this year is 87. Putting that in perspective, Azeri earned a 98 Speed Figure winning last year and Sightseek earned a 91 figure when winning the Beldame recently.

Azeri - Her 11 race win streak was snapped last month at Santa Anita, but after the race her blood test showed she had a high white blood cell count, suggesting she was not 100% going into the race. Considering that she is four for six at Santa Anita and four for five at this distance in her career, with one of those wins being her victory in this event last year, she can not be discounted as her recent fast workout on October 11, 4 furlongs in 45.80, shows she is on a path to rebound. Her high Equibase Speed Figure for the year is 88, not nearly as good as the 98 she earned last year, but good enough to be competitive in this field.

Buy The Sport - She beat 3-year-olds only in the Grade 1 Gazelle at Belmont in September in her U.S. debut, earning an Equibase Speed Figure of 85 at this distance, but around one turn. In her last start, Sightseek crushed her, and I see very little reason to suspect that she can make up the nine lengths she lost by to Sightseek.

Elloluv - Maybe she was going to be competitive to Got Koko in the Lady's Secret at Santa Anita last month, maybe not. She rallied to lead then drifted and caused crowding, resulting in her disqualification to fourth. She rated (came from behind) very well in that race, showing a dimension that bodes well for her chances here to run on the lead or from behind as the complexion of the race dictates. Considering that last race was her first in nearly five months, I give her a big shot to move forward and run even better. The Equibase Speed Figure she earned when winning the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes in April at this distance was 91, so she's capable of running a race good enough to win this event on her best day.

Got Koko - This gal showed she loves the Santa Anita strip, winning the Lady's Secret last month for her fifth win here. She has won at this nine furlong distance and is a Grade 1 winner, with a high Equibase Speed figure for the year of 90, so has all the credentials to win this, especially since she is the one credited with breaking Azeri's win streak last time out.

Lady Tak - With a best winning two-turn Equibase Speed Figure of 84, far below the main contenders here, and having lost to Buy The Sport last time out, who was in turn crushed by Sightseek, she may have her hands full here. In addition she has run twice at this distance, running second once and that was around one turn, not the two turns of this race.

Sightseek - Perfectly handled by Bobby Frankel, with his sights set on this race all year, this filly is still improving, and that is really saying something following her dominating win in the Beldame last time out. With a 91 Equibase Speed Figure last out and having beaten Take Charge Lady already this year, she is the one to beat.

Take Charge Lady - She is one quality filly, with six first or second place finishes in 7 career races at this distance, including a pair of Grade 1 wins in the 2002 and 2003 editions of the Spinster at Keeneland. In this year's running last month she was game and earned an Equibase Speed Figure of 90, but was very weary in the final yards, almost passed by You, who she had put away earlier in the stretch. That race, just 3 weeks before the Breeders' Cup, may be tough to recover from and run another big race in this event Sightseek and some of the others that didn't have as hard of a time of it in their most recent starts.

Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 3 - Post Time 10:55
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies - Purse $1,000,000
1 1/16 miles (8.5 furlongs) - For 2 year old fillies

Ashado - After winning the Schuylerville (Grade 2) and Spinaway (Grade 1), both sprints, she ran a disappointing third going this distance last out in the Frizette to Society Selection, offering no real late kick. Her last two Equibase Speed Figures were 81, a bit lower then the top contenders in here are capable, so she would need to improve, as well as need to close late instead of just running evenly.

Be Gentle - Controlled the pace from start to finish in winning the Darley Alcibaides at Keeneland on October 3, a two turn race at this distance. There is other early speed in this race and two of her three career wins have been wire-to-wire, so it may be problematic if she can't repeat that type of effort here. Still, she won under wraps in that race earning an Equibase Speed Figure of 77, and since that was her first start in 2 months and she has room to improve she must be considered a contender here.

Class Above - She was all by herself in winning the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies going a two turn mile last month at Turfway Park, 16 lengths in front of the second place finisher. She has only raced twice and improved a lot in that second start, earning an Equibase Speed Figure of 78. She has a way to go but is improving fast and if she doesn't need the lead to win has a big shot, especially with a very sharp 7 furlong workout at Santa Anita recently, galloping out a mile in 1:38.60.

Dixie High - Even though she won a stakes in her last start on September 20, in her third career start, her Equibase Speed Figure regressed considerably to 68, and she has yet to run further then 6 ½ furlongs, so she has an outside look and that is about it.

Forest Music - Another filly that has demonstrated only early speed, she won in her debut going six furlongs in October and asking a maiden winner to try Grade 1 company and two turns at the same time is a very tall order. Her Equibase Speed Figure was very high, 88, but wire-to-wire wins often contain highly inflated figures and can be discounted, as in this case.

Halfbridled - The one to beat, this filly is now a perfect three for three, winning the Oak Leaf Stakes over this track and at this distance on September 28. Julie Krone can rate her off the pace just as she did winning the Del Mar Debutante one race before last, and as she's handled four of these already, with a high Equibase Speed Figure of 85 and likely more improvement with racing. She recently worked in company with Crazy Ensign, who set a track record at Del Mar this summer and Halfbridled should be a legitimate favorite going to post in this event.

Hollywood Story - A nice filly, she is one of those already beaten by Halfbridled, twice. Last time out she was off slowly and may have finished closer then she did, and better than third, if she had broken cleanly. Her high Equibase Speed Figure of the year was an 80 when second to Halfbridled in the Del Mar Debutante and she will be in a tracking position off all the early speed and putting in a nice late run for at least a piece of this event.

Renaissance Lady - She somehow got her tongue over her bit and had a hard time breathing in her last start in the Oak Leaf, so Gary Stevens had to pull her up. You can draw a line through that race and look back to her previous two to see she can run some, running second to Class Above in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile just prior to that last start. She's another that should appreciate the early pace and although her high Equibase Speed Figure of the year, 79, is a bit short to be a win contender unless she improves a lot, she too can not be counted out for a minor share.

Shadow of Mine - She is another that lost by a wide margin to Halfbridled in the Oak Leaf, never a threat at odds of 62/1. Her best Speed Figure of the year is 73 and I don't think she has much of a chance here.

Society Selection - A prime upset candidate, she came from far back to win the Grade 1 Frizette in only her second career start on October 4, earning an Equibase Speed Figure of 84, enough to contend with the favorite Halfbridled here if repeated, or more likely, bettered. Her dam, Love That Jazz, ran second in this race in 1996, and she is trained by "The Chief" Allen Jerkens, otherwise known as "The Giant Killer" for his ability to upset favorites in big races.

Tarlow - A stablemate of Hollywood Story, she ran second to Halfbridled in the Oak Leaf on September 28 in a decent effort considering it was only her second career start and first around two turns. She earned an Equibase Speed Figure of 78 that day so needs to improve a few lengths to get to where the top two contenders are at this point in time, but two year olds, especially fillies, can make that kind of improvement, as 6 points is the improvement that Society Selection made in winning the Frizette last time out.

Victory U.S.A. - Her effort in the Frizette when second to Society Selection was a very big one, as she stalked in second, rallied to lead, then was swallowed up by a big kick by the winner. She was clearly second and very game, and that Equibase Speed Figure of 83 was decent enough to give her a long look in this event with the possibility for improvement with racing and experience here.

Vino Tinto - A nice filly that is two for two, both wins came in sprints against weak competition with the best of the two earning only an Equibase Speed figure of 75, so she would have to come a long way to be a competitor here.

Zosima - A rapidly improving filly, she has every right to upset if she moves forward from her last start, a sharp win from off the pace in the Arlington - Washington Lassie. Pat Day rode her to that victory and rides her back, and she is in the top hands of trainer Eoin (pronounced Owen) Harty, who does a fantastic job managing horses all over the country owned by the powerful stable Darley. She earned an Equibase Speed Figure of 79 in that start, and seeing that fillies at this point in the year can move forward 5 or 6 points from race to race she must be considered a contender at a price in this race.

Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 4 - Post Time 11:35
Netjets Breeders' Cup Mile - Purse $1,500,000
1 mile on Turf (8 furlongs) - 3 year olds and up

Century City - Upset winner of the Grade 2 Arcadia Handicap in April over this course at 9 furlongs, he has two wins at a mile on grass, but neither were this year. He is also entered to run in the John Deere Breeders' Cup Turf, which looks like a better spot given his two for seven overall record at this distance on grass and his best 2003 winning Equibase Speed Figure of 86.

Decarchy - Privately purchased from Juddmonte after his last start and to be retired after this race, this half-brother to Empire Maker, Honest Lady, Chester House and Chiselling out of the top producing mare Toussaud just does not seem to be a Grade 1 miler at this stage in his career. He did not show the fight and spunk he did last time out in the Kelso Breeders' Cup Mile at Belmont, and frankly since Frankel and Juddmonte aren't in the habit of selling good horses before Graded stakes races I have to wonder if he would have started at all in this race if still in their care. He is winless this year and his best representative Equibase Speed Figure of the year is 86, earned when beaten a nose to Irish Warrior in an allowance race in June.

Designed for Luck - He is a big story this year coming back as he has from injury and coming into his own last time out with a win in the Grade 2 Oak Tree Breeders' Cup Mile over this course. This guy is peaking at the right time, a strong miler (5 for 10 in his career) and a horse that really likes the Santa Anita turf. He has earned back-to-back 91 Equibase Speed Figures and since his career best was 97 has a big shot in this race as he moves forward.

Freefourinternet - This colt pulled off a big upset at 20/1 in the Kelso on October 4 at Belmont, coming from dead last and wide to win on the wire by a nose, but the Equibase Speed Figure earned was 88, not as good as one would expect from a Grade 2 victory and a few points shy of the main players here. He will likely be flying late and is good for a piece.

Irish Warrior - You can pretty much discount his performance last time out in the Clement Hirsch at Del Mar, as that distance of a mile and a quarter is further then he wants to go in Grade 1 company. His trainer, Wally Dollase, who saddles Ten Most Wanted in the Breeders' Cup Classic - Powered by Dodge, thinks this race sets up big for him with a lot of pace to run at, and I agree. He closed like a shot to get up by a head and win the Del Mar Handicap at the end of August, earning an Equibase Speed Figure of 89, and he has won at a Mile on turf as well, so he is a definite contender.

Oasis Dream - One of the early speed horses in this race, he has yet to run more then 7 furlongs. A multiple Grade 1 winner, I have great respect for his trainer, Sir John Gosden, but really would rather have seen this colt go in the Sprint where his speed has a much better chance of carrying all the way. In this race the pace should be too hot and the closers too much for him to handle.

Peace Rules - Also entered in the Breeders' Cup Classic, but preferred to go here because this is a better distance for him, we must remember that before entering the Triple Crown chase this spring he was a powerhouse on grass, winning three and losing another by a head. His high Equibase Speed Figure on grass of 85 isn't really relevant since he was much younger then, but his 90 figure winning the Blue Grass in April and 89 winning the Haskell in August mean he can run with these, the one problem being that he is always first or second at the second call in his races, likely not the place to be this day with so many other horses wanting to occupy the same space at the same time.
Perfect Soul - Winning the Grade 1 Shadwell Mile at Keeneland last month, he earned a very solid 92 Equibase Speed Figure, putting him squarely in the picture in this event. He had run about as well before when winning the King Edward Breeders' Cup in June at Woodbine, so it does not appear that that last effort was a fluke, making him a strong contender in this year's Mile.

Pie N Burger - I am not sure what he is doing in here, as he is zero for two on the grass and a horse with early speed only, likely to get burned up on the pace. His highest winning Equibase Speed Figure of the year was 90, earned while winning the Grade 3 Lone Star Park Handicap in wire-to-wire fashion, a race not really comparable to this one.

Refuse to Bend - Winner of the Grade 3 Desmond Stakes at this distance in August, he then ran 11th in a Grade 1 mile at Longchamp in his most recent start. To be competitive in this event, a horse really has to have proven it can run with older horses at a mile in Grade 1 company, something this colt has yet to demonstrate.

Sarafan - Also entered in the John Deere Breeders' Cup Turf, he closed very well to be second to Design for Luck in the Oak Tree Breeders' Cup Mile on October 5 and is well legged up for a big race here, but his record of 0-4-1 in 8 races on the Santa Anita turf and 1-3-1 in 10 races at a mile on grass in his career contradict how that last race may lead to a competitive effort here. With a 91 Equibase Speed Figure from that last race, I'll go with recent form and world class trainer's (Neil Drysdale) ability to judge where to place his horses, over his mediocre Santa Anita turf and mile record and give him a nice shot in this field.

Six Perfections - One of the top milers in Europe, male or female, this filly dispatched some of the best in the world last time out in France, beating last year's winner, Domedriver, who has since been retired. She has the style and the class to be very tough here, and not only has been working out on a left handed course in Europe for her U.S. debut but Bailey has already agreed to take the call. Count her very much "IN" as a contender here.

Soaring Free - In excellent form with 5 wins and one second this year in 7 starts, he still doesn't appear to be a Grade 1 miler, since he faded badly in the late stages in the Shadwell Mile, won by Perfect Soul, earlier this month at Keeneland. His best Equibase Speed Figure, 94, was earned at 7 furlongs, and he appears to be another one of the early speed contingent here, perhaps expending too much early energy to be much of a factor in the late stages.

Special Ring - Interestingly enough, trainer Canani was frustrated with his effort in the Oak Tree Breeders' Cup Mile when he was taken back, rallied wide and missed third by a neck, as Julio stated he is not a closer. That statement should be a concern as it suggests that he will go back to his old style of going to the lead and trying to go all the way. It has worked for him a lot including a win in the Grade 1 Eddie Read at Del Mar (9 furlongs), but it may not work here with all the other horses likely to show early speed. In the Shoemaker Breeders' Cup in May he tried to go all the way and was beaten in the last 16th of the race, earning a decent 91 Speed Figure, but beaten nonetheless.

Statue of Liberty - With 7th and 9th place finishes recently in mile races in Europe, he would have to run back to his 2nd place finish in the Grade 2 Sussex stakes in July to be competitive, and going off recent form I can't see that happening.

Taste of Paradise - Another horse with a penchant for being on the lead early, his best race of the year was a wire-to-wire win in the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap at a mile and a sixteenth on dirt in August, earning an Equibase Speed Figure of 88. He has never run on grass and I don't believe this is the right time to be trying the sod, in a Grade 1 race.

Touch of The Blues - Often brilliant, as when winning the Maker's Mark Mile in 2002 and running 2nd by a neck last year in the Shadwell Mile, he won the Grade 1 Atto Mile in September this year with a furious surge and earned an Equibase Speed Figure of 86. He ran 10th in this race last year but is a different horse this year, coming off a decent enough 3rd in this year's Shadwell mile with a 91 Speed Figure, and although his 3-5-3 career mark at a mile on grass is not inspiring nor his 0 for 3 record on the Santa Anita turf, I believe we can count on his trainer, Neil Drysdale, to have him honed as sharp as a razor for this year's race.

Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 5 - Post Time 12:10
Breeders' Cup Sprint - Purse $1,000,000
6 furlongs - 3 year olds and up

Aldebaran - Coming off a powerful win in the Grade 1 Forego in August at Saratoga, earning an Equibase Speed Figure of 99 while winning his fourth straight race around one turn, he is cutting back to 6 furlongs which means he may have a little extra stamina in the late stages. He comes from well out of it with a lot of early speed to set up his closing charge and is a perfect 2 for 2 at Santa Anita, so there really is nothing to dislike and everything to like about his chances in this race.

Bluesthestandard - This ex-claimer was on fire at the start of the year, winning four straight, with a high winning Equibase Speed Figure of 92 in a Grade 2 race here at Santa Anita, but has tailed off since that time. He is seven for eleven at Santa Anita and five for nine at six furlongs, but since his last two starts weren't close to his previous top form and even though he missed second by a head in his most recent start that race was suspicious as the maidens that ran in the race prior did so nearly as fast. All in all I don't view him in the top tier of contenders here.

Cajun Beat - With Equibase Speed Figures of 92 and 93 in his two most recent starts, and a good off the pace style he has a small shot at being a win contender and a bigger one at being part of the exotics such as the exacta. He was flattered when Clock Stopper, the horse he beat in his most recent start, the Grade 3 Kentucky Cup Sprint, came back to win the Perryville at Keeneland recently, and being a three year old there is room for improvement.

Captain Squire - He comes out of the same race as many entered here, the Ancient Title Breeders' Cup Handicap (Grade 1), a race won wire to wire by Avonzado, skipping this race due to the supplementary nomination fee. That race was run in 108.12, with maidens in one race prior running 6 furlongs in 108.91. This gelding earned a 95 Equibase Speed Figure in winning the Sunshine Millions Sprint over the track at the distance in January, a race that if repeated makes him pretty tough in here, but his last race continues to trouble me because of his inability to pass the horse in front and the time may have been deceiving.

Clock Stopper - After running 2nd in the Grade 3 Kentucky Sprint on September 13, he won the Perryville at Keeneland on October 9, with both races garnering him Equibase Speed Figures of 92. That likely isn't good enough to win, but it might be good enough for a big slice of the pie, and his closing style and proven form at this distance is a plus as well.

Ethan Man - After having been on the shelf for sixteen months, he has run very well in two straight, taking an allowance race then running second after leading late in the Grade 3 Phoenix Breeders' Cup. He earned a very strong 95 Equibase Speed Figure as a 3-year-old last year and could be approaching a peak in his third start off a layoff, often a peak effort for these athletes.

Great Notion - This is one speedy son-of-a-gun, a horse that nearly always has the lead the first call, but with one win and four second place finishes in seven races this year it appears he really doesn't have what it takes to win a Grade 1 sprint like this race, with his high one-turn Equibase Speed Figure for the year of 87.

Midas Eyes - Another horse saddled by Bobby Frankel, who broke D. Wayne Lukas' 16 year old record of 22 Grade 1 wins in a single year when Sightseek won the Beldame on October 4, this lightly raced colt has been pointed for this since it was decided not to run him in the Triple Crown races. Has fired every time he has run, most recently losing by a nose to Posse in the Riva Ridge Breeders' Cup at Belmont in June. He worked in company with Aldebaran recently and looks fresh as a daisy and a top contender in this event, with a high 97 Equibase Speed Figure earned in March and a 95 in his most recent start.

Posse - You had to see the trouble he got into in the Grade 1 Vosburgh to believe it, and the past performance line tells a bit of the story, as he was a length behind the leader at the top of the lane and
7 lengths back at the wire. The reason is that he lost critical time at the most critical stage of the race, full of run in traffic with nowhere to go, and finally when he got out to the middle of the track he was motoring, but much too late. His high Equibase Speed Figure of 95 earned winning the Riva Ridge was no fluke, and with a pace set up in this field much like he saw that day, he has a big shot to post a mild upset in this event.

Private Horde - Kept in shape with a nice overnight handicap victory on 9/20 after taking the Grade 2 Vanderbilt at Saratoga by 5 easy lengths, earning a 95 Equibase Speed Figure. Supplemented to the race for $90,000, he has a good off-the-pace running style, has not been worse than second in 8 races this year, and has a decent shot to contend for the honors, and will likely be overlooked in the wagering.

Shake You Down - One of the top stories of the year, he was claimed for $65,000 (not an insignificant sum) in March and proceeded to reel off six straight wins, three in Graded stakes, for Scott Lake, before taking it on the chin in the Vanderbilt (won by Private Horde). He rebounded big off that defeat in classified allowance company, and with Equibase Speed Figures ranging from 91 to 102 while winning this year he has all the credentials to be a contender here, and that is the reason his connections are willing to shell out the $90,000 to supplement him to this race.

Valid Video - His last two races, both victories, have been very impressive, most recently in the Grade 1 Kings Bishop at Saratoga. He earned a 95 Equibase Speed Figure winning the Grade 3 Carry Back at Calder in July and fires very well off short layoffs just like the one he will be coming back from on Breeders' Cup Day, so don't count him out for even an instant.

Yankee Gentleman - With wins in restricted stakes and allowance company only in 2003 and a high winning Equibase Speed Figure of 91, he appears a bit outclassed, and as the beaten favorite in the Ancient Title Breeders' Cup, the race that went just a bit faster then a maiden race on the same card earlier this month at Santa Anita, I just can't make him a contender at this time.

Zavata - He also comes out of the Ancient Title, with a non-contending fifth place finish. He won the Grade 2 Amsterdam for 3-year-olds only in August with an Equibase Speed Figure of 90, a few points lower then what it will take to win this, and coming off two poor races in a row I can't label him a contender here.

Congaree - Also entered in the Breeders' Cup Classic - Powered by Dodge, according to Baffert, he is entered here as "Insurance" because he recently came up with a Quarter Crack that may effect his training for the Classic Distance. He loves Santa Anita and won the Grade 1 Carter in April going 7 furlongs with a 95 Equibase Speed Figure, so if he goes here he is going to be a strong contender.

Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 6 - Post Time 12:34
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf - Purse $1,000,000
1¼ miles on Turf (10 furlongs) - Fillies and Mares 3 years old and up


Bien Nicole - With dangerous early speed, this mare comes off an awesome win under wraps in the Winstar Galaxy at Keeneland on October 5, earning an Equibase Speed Figure of 86, just a bit shy of her high for the year of 88. The knock is that she really beat little in that race and in her real test of the year, the Grade 1 Beverly D, she was caught late and beaten by Heat Haze after leading on slow fractions, so doesn't appear to be up to the caliber of most of these, in what is likely to be the most wide open race on this championship day.

Bright Sky - She is also entered in the Turf to go against the boys, and she has proven to be competitive with both sexes this year. She was beaten a head and a neck in a Group 1 race on Arc day at Longchamp on October 5, after leading late, and is not only a Group 1 winner but one at this 10 furlong distance as well. She must be considered.

Dimitrova - She rebounded from defeat in the Garden City Breeders' Cup Handicap to win the Flower Bowl Invitational in her most recent start, earning an Equibase Speed Figure of 86, now a perfect 2 for 2 at this mile and a quarter distance. That speed figure is comparable with many in here, and therefore her name gets added to the list of win contenders.

Dessert - Although she won nicely in the Del Mar Oaks in her most recent start, she was on the lead throughout, her second straight wire-to-wire victory, and that was against three-year-olds only. At this stage I would like to see a competitive race against older competition. Additionally she has never run past a mile and an eighth, so she has a question mark in that area as well.

Heat Haze - After winning three times and losing her only other start in the U.S. by a neck to Voodoo Dancer, she found herself too far back on too slow a pace against top caliber competition in her most recent start in the Flower Bowl, so she could do no better then third to Dimitrova. A perfect 2 for 2 on the grass here at Santa Anita, the mistake of having her that far back won't be made again, and considering she is a Grade 1 winner with a high Equibase Speed Figure of 88 in winning the Beverly D in August, beating Bien Nicole in the process, she fits as a strong contender on all counts here.

Islington - Very likely to be supplemented to the race for $90,000, this filly ran third in last year's edition of this race (Equibase Speed Figure 89) as a 3-year-old, and might have won if not for a ton of trouble during the running of the race. She was forced to steady repeatedly in traffic and appears ready to try to make amends for that effort, coming off a smashing third place finish to two of the best male horses in the world, High Chaparral and Falbrav, beaten just a head and a neck for the win in the Champion Stakes in Ireland on September 6.

L'Ancresse - Group 1 placed at a mile and a half, she appears a cut below the best, having run fifth to Islington in August and having won just a listed stakes since then.

Megahertz - Four for six on the grass at Santa Anita, and two for three at this 10 furlong distance in her career, she too will likely be supplemented for $90,000. She's taken turns with many in here in recent races, beating Tates Creek last time out in the Grade 1 Ramona and having run third to that one in the Gamely and third to Voodoo Dancer in the Beverly Hills Handicap prior to that. Her high Equibase Speed Figure as a winner is 86, but on her best day she can run with any of these, so can't be thrown out as a contender.

Mezzo Soprano - Probably the best 3 year old filly in Europe, she won a Group 1 race in her most recent start in France, beating Yesterday by a head, and continues to improve with racing. A full sister to champion horse and sire Rahy, and a half-sister to champion Singspiel, the main question is whether she is good enough to tackle older at this distance, which may be a bit short for her coming off that mile and a half win last time out.

Musical Chimes - Admittedly, I like her quite a bit, as she ran a bang-up race in her U.S. debut when closing fast for 2nd in the Grade 1 Yellow Ribbon, won by Tates Creek. She earned an Equibase Speed Figure of 84 in that race, and with logical (very logical) improvement coming in her second U.S. start she should be a strong factor. With Gary Stevens riding her back after getting familiar with her in that race she has to be considered.

Riskaverse - Her claim to fame was a win in the 2002 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland, but she has not shown that kind of top form at this level since, so she appears to be a stretch as a win contender here.

Tates Creek - Three for four over the Santa Anita sod, she won the Yellow Ribbon even though blocked at the critical stage of the race, a sign of a true champion. Her only loss in her last six races came to Megahertz in the Ramona at Del Mar, and her high Equibase Speed Figure this year was 90, which could win this race if repeated.

Voodoo Dancer - After winning the Grade 1 Diana Handicap on July 26 at Saratoga with an Equibase Speed Figure of 87, she came down with a sinus infection and had to go to the world renown Rood and Riddle Equine Clinic in Kentucky. When at her best she can run with the best, as she beat Heat Haze in her last race and lost to Tates Creek last fall by a neck, but it has to be of some concern whether she can run an "A" race after 3 months off against this kind of company.

Yesterday - Coming off two tough luck losses, one to Mezzo Soprano by a head and another to ZZ Top again by a head, both in Group 1 company, and that last one at this 10 furlong distance, she fits on both class and form, but perhaps not on "win" spirit, as her last victory came against 3-year-olds only at a mile in May.

Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 7 - Post Time 1:20
Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile - Purse $1,500,000
1 1/16 miles (8.5 furlongs) - For 2-year-old colts and geldings


Action This Day - Although just a maiden winner, world class trainer Richard Mandella thinks this colt deserves a chance after working six furlongs in 1:12 the other day, and coming off a smart win from last to first in his 2nd career start, at this distance and at Santa Anita. His Equibase Speed Figure from that win was 72, quite a bit lower then the main contenders here, but two year olds can improve vastly from race to race so he is not entirely without a chance, and the fact he is familiar with this track and distance is a factor in his favor as well.

Cactus Ridge - Speed wins these types of races, and this guy is full of speed and then some. Bred and owned by Country Music Superstar Toby Keith, who races under the name Dream Walkin' Farms, this colt destroyed the field under wraps in the Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Futurity with an Equibase Speed Figure of 82, and although that was a one turn route, he should be able to get two turns just fine with his breeding.

Capitano - Ruler's Court, who beat him by 14 lengths when he was second in the Norfolk Stakes on October 5, is out with an injury, and Perfect Moon, who beat him in the Best Pal Stakes when he was second prior to that, is not in this race either. He has two-turn experience where many of these do not, is familiar with the track, and has a high Equibase Speed Figure of 78. That figure is about 5 points lower then what it should take to win this race but he is another one that has a lot of potential to improve.

Chapel Royal - Like Capitano, the horses that he ran second to in his two most recent starts aren't in this race, and so he appears very capable. There is some question of him getting the distance, as he did weaken late last out at this distance going one turn at Belmont, but with an 82 Equibase Speed Figure from that race he fits with the top tier in here as a contender.

Consecrate - Ran badly as the 2/1 favorite in the Norfolk, likely green (not knowing what to do) as it was his first attempt around two turns. He broke his maiden prior to that by 6 easy lengths with an Equibase Speed Figure of 74, but still needs to improve and show he can run two turns before being considered a serious threat.

Cuvee - A legitimate contender and possibly the favorite here. He won off as he pleased by 8 lengths winning the Grade 1 Futurity at Belmont going a mile (one turn) in September, with Bailey up, who will ride him again in this race. He may be able to rate off the pace, and will need to, because he will not be able to go with Cactus Ridge early and still win. Other then that one question he's a solid contender to get it done.

Grand Reward - A son of Storm Cat who has been running in Europe, he should have no trouble running well on the dirt just as Hold That Tiger did last year when coming on fast for third. Saddled by one of Europe's best trainers, Aidan O'Brien, who brought Hold That Tiger to the Juvenile last year, regardless of the fact this colt hasn't run past six furlong he should be considered as he would not be here if not talented.

Mambo Train - Bred to adore the grass, and having proved it winning in his debut in a turf sprint, his first try on dirt and going two turns was in his 2nd start, last time out in the Norfolk Stakes, and he didn't know what to do when the first turn came up and he blew the turn, eventually passing a few for 6th in a race that was nothing more then experience. With a blistering five-furlong workout since that race, and with top-notch breeding he has a slight upset look in this event, as anything can happen with two year olds.

Minister Eric - He earned a 78 Equibase Speed Figure when second to Siphonizer in the Del Mar Futurity, going 7 furlongs. He can improve, but will need to, and to show that he can successfully negotiate two turns, in order to contend in this event.

Old Deuteronomy - Saddled by Aidan O'Brien like Grand Reward, this colt is another son of Storm Cat with the same chance to run well as his stablemate, just like Hold That Tiger (entered in this year's Classic) did last year. Definitely a horse to consider especially as European horses such as him will be underbet by the public because of a lack of form on dirt.

Race For Glory - After crushing the field in a California bred only stakes race on October 1, earning an 85 Equibase Speed Figure, this colt gets a long look to contend. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, he made two moves in that race to show not only talent but also fortitude, and he should have no problem getting the distance and improving with 3 weeks of rest since that win over the track.

Relaxed Gesture - This colt lost by a neck in a stakes in Ireland in his most recent start, going a mile, so really just needs to be able to transfer that form to dirt to be a factor. Trainer Dermot Weld has done very well with the few horses he has decided to ship across the pond this year, most notably Dimitrova (entered in the Filly & Mare Turf), so this colt deserves a strong look.

Siphonizer - After winning the Del Mar Futurity with a 78 Equibase Speed Figure going 7 furlongs, he had an excuse for his poor effort in the Norfolk, as he "flipped his palette", which means he couldn't breathe well. Apparently all better now as demonstrated by a sharp workout over the track on October 13, Julie Krone will ride him and if he moves forward off that Futurity victory he will be a factor.

That's An Outrage - Coming off a two turn maiden win over this track gives him a look, but the 78 Equibase Speed Figure earned is quite a bit lower then it will take to be a contender here. Still, 2-year-olds can move forward significantly from race to race, and this one would need to in order to join the top tier of contenders for this race.

Tiger Hunt - Rumor was he was going to sit out the rest of the year and come back strong for the three year old races, but I guess the connections were very impressed with the maturity shown when he rallied from eighth in traffic to finish second to the highly regarded Eurosilver, who has decided to skip this race. Tiger Hunt earned an Equibase Speed Figure of 80 in that race, around two turns, and certainly can improve. One concern is that he will be coming from far back in a race in which the speed (Cactus Ridge) may hang in there very tough.

Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 8 - Post Time 1:55
John Deere Breeders' Cup Turf - Purse $2,000,000
1 1/2 miles (12 furlongs) - For 3 year olds and up

Balto Star - Even though he looks like the "rabbit" for his stablemate Deeliteful Irving, he has the credentials to run well at this level and distance, having won the Grade 1 United Nations Handicap in July wire to wire. He was very game when holding third in the Turf Classic Invitational in his most recent start, won by Sulamani, and although he may have company early here if The Tin Man also goes in the race, he can not be entirely ruled out, with a high Equibase Speed Figure of 87 this year.

Deeliteful Irving - Closed resolutely in traffic to be second to Sulamani in the Turf Classic, earning a commendable 87 Equibase Speed Figure. He won the Grade 2 Pan American Handicap last year at this distance with a 94 speed figure, so on his best day he can be pretty tough. One thing is for sure; he will be closing stoutly in the late stages and has to be considered strongly for the exacta and trifecta at the minimum.

Falbrav - Also entered in the Breeders' Cup Classic - Powered by Dodge, with preference to go in that race, this horse has really come into his own this year with three Group one wins and a neck loss. That loss came to High Chaparral, winner of last year's edition of this race and entered again this year. The goal of cutting him back to a mile for his last start, a winning one, was to sharpen him up for whichever race his connections choose to run him in on Breeders' Cup Day, and to go in this race he will need to be supplemented for $180,000, so pay close attention if this is the race they decide to run him in.

High Chaparral - Also will need to be supplemented for $180,000 to run, but that is not an issue with this colt who has earned over $4.5 million. He is a perfect 2 for 2 at the distance, and although when winning last year he earned only an 82 Equibase Speed Figure, that may have been due to a very tiring and yielding grass course. One possible knock is that he peaked too soon, coming back from a layoff after winning last year's race to win in August and September, only to run third in the Arc de Triomphe last month. That race was run on very sticky turf, and perhaps he had an excuse. All in all he presents a pretty confusing picture coming into the big race.

Johar - The farthest he has run is 1¼ miles, although he won a Grade 2 event at that distance, earning a competitive 91 Equibase Speed Figure. He's a Grade 1 winner at a shorter distance, and comes off a race in which he set the pace and was passed late, but since the horse that did the passing was the talented Storming Home it was a good effort, although odd since he had never gone to the lead before. Trainer Mandella wished he had worked better on October 12 on the turf, but considering the dogs (cones) were out 35 feet he had to travel a lot farther then the one mile that was reported. The main factors in running at this level successfully are ability at the class and the distance, and since he has never run 12 furlongs he may be a cut below the top tier in this event.

Storming Home - Rebounding from taking that scary right hand turn when in the shadow of winning the Arlington Million, he won the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch with a big late kick on September 28 at Santa Anita, showing he is manageable. He has three wins at this distance and won a race that will be Grade 1 in the future, The Jim Murray Memorial, so he qualifies as a top contender in this race on all counts. The Equibase Speed Figure from the Jim Murray Memorial was a big one, 96, putting him at the head of the class in that category as well.

Sulamani - After winning the Arlington Million via Storming Home's disqualification, he won on the square in the Turf Classic, earning his second straight 89 Equibase Speed Figure. He is a world class marathon runner who overcomes trouble to win as a champion should, stumbling on the turn in his last start and still winning going away in a hand ride. He will be very tough once more in this event.

The Tin Man - With all three of his recent wins being wire-to-wire, it appears he will have his hands full as Balto Star has the same style. He has won a Grade 2 race at this distance with an Equibase Speed Figure of 91. He is six for nine on the Santa Anita green, but even on a slow pace two horses battling each other for position expend a lot of physical and mental energy, and that can't be good when the real running starts.

Toccet - Never having run farther then 1 1/8 miles and never having run on grass, this is a very odd time to try the sod. He is also entered in the Classic, which is truthfully the event he has a better chance in, compared to this race with many top class marathon runners. His best Equibase Speed Figure in 2003 is 85, earned on dirt, which doesn't look to be competitive in this group.

Bright Sky - A very nice filly, she looks outclassed against these boys in here. She has run against the colts in Europe and managed a third place finish at a mile and a second at 1 1/8 miles, but she's yet to prove herself at 12 furlongs. She is also entered in the Filly & Mare Turf and that looks like the more appropriate spot for her.

Century City - This colt is also entered in the Mile, which he looks better suited to at first glance, having never run farther then 1 1/8 miles. However, he won the Grade 2 Arcadia Handicap over this course in the spring, earning an Equibase Speed Figure of 86, and he earned an 89 Figure just prior to that on the grass, so he does have an outside look in this marathon as he has the breeding to run all day.

Sarafan - Truly the dark horse in this event, he is also entered to run in the mile, and whichever race Neil Drysdale chooses for him we must pay attention. He has won at 1 3/8 miles on grass, in Group 1 company, or at least nearly so, as he was a nose behind Falbrav in the Group 1 Japan Cup last November. He comes off a huge effort over the course at a mile when second to Designed for Luck, earning a 91 Equibase Speed Figure, so he fits on form, ability and class.

Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003
Race 9 - Post Time 2:35
Breeders' Cup Classic - Powered by Dodge - Purse $4,000,000
1 1/4 miles (10 furlongs) - For 3 year olds and up


Congaree - Also entered in the sprint for insurance in case a recently discovered quarter crack cuts back on his training schedule, this horse is about as solid and dependable as they come. He earned a hefty 94 Equibase Speed Figure winning the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup in July at this classic distance, then regressed slightly with a 90 Speed Figure when second to Perfect Drift in his last start, the Kentucky Cup Classic, at 1 1/8 miles. His high Speed Figure for the year was 96, when beaten a head by Milwaukee Brew in the Santa Anita Handicap at this distance in March. With four wins and one second in five races in his career at Santa Anita, I would say he sure likes this place, and he is working like a bomb in the morning for Baffert. The only question is whether he was all out in the Kentucky Cup or if they were saving something for this big event, because if that was all he had then Perfect Drift may have his number again.

Dynever - A three year old, when facing older for the first time in his last start, he was beaten, not badly, but beaten nonetheless, and since earning a high Equibase Speed Figure of 97 when nearly winning the West Virginia Derby (Grade 3) in August, he has regressed somewhat. Being as the farthest distance he has won at is 1 1/8 miles and he has yet to prove himself in Grade 1 company, he may be biting off more then he can chew.

Evening Attire - He won the Jockey Club Gold Cup in 2002 at this distance with a decent 92 Equibase Speed Figure, but this year his only two wins have come in Grade 3 and allowance company. He loves the mud, but is unlikely to see those conditions in Southern California. He has a solid closing kick and should be rallying for a share but that would be about it.

Funny Cide - Personally I am glad that his connections chose this race instead of one against New York Breds only. Considering all the ups and downs he has had since he won the Preakness it is good to give him a shot against the best. He earned a 91 Equibase Speed Figure when winning the Derby, 92 when winning the Preakness, then of course tailed off as that hard Triple Crown campaign took its toll. With a recent sensational workout at Belmont, a mile in 138.60, he could rebound to top form, but on the other hand it can be tough to run an "A" race in this kind of company after nearly 3 months on the shelf, which is what he will be attempting to do on Breeders' Cup Day, while facing older horses for the very first time.

Hold That Tiger - It was a good idea to give him a start in the U.S. and on dirt before the main event, and even though he ran 2nd in a short field, the horse that beat him, Mineshaft, would likely be the favorite here. He earned an Equibase Speed Figure of 93 in that race, and should be a big factor here with that race under his belt.

Medaglia d'Oro - Earning a 94 Equibase Speed Figure in his most recent start, a second place finish similar to that of Hold That Tiger, the horse that beat him, Candy Ride, is something special as well but is taking the rest of the year off. A perfect 2 for 2 at Santa Anita, he won three Graded stakes in a row prior to his last start, all with Bailey aboard, who will ride him again. I really cannot find a chink in his armor, and he should be a stout factor from bell to wire.

Perfect Drift - This is what makes this race so exciting, as although we have lost big contenders like Empire Maker, Mineshaft and Candy Ride we have gained Funny Cide and this guy. With comments in his most recent races like "ridden out", "mild handling" and "ridden out" again, it is possible we have yet to see the best this four year old has to give, and coming off a sparkling win in the Hawthorne Gold Cup with a 95 Equibase Speed Figure, he fits on all levels, with Gary Stevens to be his pilot on World Thoroughbred Championship day.

Pleasantly Perfect - Certainly may have been a bit short when running on October 4, having been on the shelf since March, so that nice win in the Grade 2 Goodwood Breeders' Cup with an 88 Equibase Speed Figure can be improved upon. In winning the 2002 edition of the Goodwood he earned a 96 Speed Figure, so he is capable of much better, and he has 3 wins at Santa Anita. He does have a couple of question marks looming over his head, however. The first is whether he can get a mile and a quarter, as he is zero for two at the distance, and the second is how much did that sizzling five furlong workout in 58.60 on October 14 leave in his tank come the big day.

Ten Most Wanted - Facing older for the very first time like Funny Cide, he has won two in a row, one at this distance, but his best winning Equibase Speed Figure recently is 88, far below the first tier entered in this race. Granted, he did earn a whopping 98 Speed Figure when winning the Illinois Derby in April but has not come close to duplicating that figure, and when compared to some of the older runners with better figures he may have his work cut out for him.

Volponi - After winning last year's Breeders' Cup Classic in a huge upset, he has run second five times, third once, and fourth once. It is tough to say he can win this year, as he really has not shown the fire he did even once since last year's win. Still, he ran an awesome race last year with an Equibase Speed Figure of 99, 10 points better then the 89 he earned in the Meadowlands Cup last year, and interestingly enough he earned the same 89 in this year's running of the Meadowlands Cup.

Azeri - Unlikely to go in this race after losing in the Lady's Secret Breeders' Cup and coming up with a high white blood count, she could have a chance with her best race, as she notched a super 98 Equibase Speed Figure winning last year's Breeders' Cup Distaff, comparable with the 99 that Volponi earned winning this race in 2002. A lot here depends on her last few workouts and if her connections enter this race instead of the Distaff. Pre-entering here is more then I expected, and if she were to actually run I might be willing to take a shot on her to pull off an upset.

Falbrav - Following in the footsteps of European horses such as Swain, Arcangues, Giant's Causeway and Sakhee, all who have transformed grass form to dirt form in this event, Falbrav arrives here on the heels of a big win at a mile in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes in England, a tool to sharpen his form and put him on edge for a big race. If he goes it will cost his connections $360,000 to supplement him, and if he goes he should run very well, as world class horses such as him are world class no matter the surface, and I see no reason he can't transform his top grass form to dirt as so many similar horses have done for this race.

Peace Rules - Entered also in the Mile, with preference for that race, this may be farther then he wants to go, although he did run second to Ten Most Wanted in the Travers at this distance and third in the Kentucky Derby to Funny Cide. He will be on or just off the lead as he usually is, but with a high Equibase Speed Figure of 92 this year, earned going a mile and a sixteenth, he may have a way to improve to be a top competitor here.

Toccet - Entered also in the Turf, although he has never tried grass, this horse was highly regarded as a two year old last year but was injured and off for a long time. He won his comeback in August but has not run nearly as well since, so a wait and see attitude is the one I am taking.